I’ve just finished rewatching tonight’s episode of Survivor and I have to admit that I’m still a little bit confused as to why everything happened the way that it did.
There were two tribal councils tonight. The first one, which led to Andrea being sent to the jury, was pretty straight forward. Brad seemed like the obvious target but Cirie and Sarah decided to get rid of Andrea instead. Obviously, they felt that Andrea was bigger threat and the only people who were really surprised by this turn of events was Andrea and Aubry.
(For all her talk about playing with logic and understanding that she needs to “build a resume” before she goes in front of the jury, no one ever really seems to care much about what Aubry wants. Any time Aubry comes up with a plan, it seems pretty certain that everyone else is going to ignore it.)
The second tribal was where things got complicated. Since Brad had won immunity and, since Troyzan is so skillful at flying under the radar that the tribe seems to have forgotten about him, the majority alliance turned on each other. Cirie, Aubry, Sarah, and Michaela all seemed to be going after Tai, while Tai was thinking of going after Sarah. Sarah gave Cirie her “steal a vote” advantage with the understanding that Cirie would not play it at tribal. Cirie, however, then tried to do just that. This led to perhaps the greatest moment of the season as Jeff revealed that, under the rules of the advantage, only Sarah could use it.
This led to everyone running around tribal and whispering to each other. I would have loved to have known what everyone said because somehow, it led to Andrea “stealing” Tai’s vote and then voting, with Brad and Troyzan, to get rid of Michaela. Michaela and Aubry voted for Tai while Cirie voted for Aubry. Tai did not play his immunity idol, so he obviously knew what was going to happen.
I wish this episode hadn’t featured two tribal councils. It led to the whole episode feeling rushed and, obviously, the viewers were not shown a lot of the strategizing that went on before that second tribal.
Next week is the finale and we have six players left. They are:
Tai, who hasn’t played much of a game but who does have two idols, which means that he’s guaranteed to make it to the final four.
Troyzan, who has flown under the radar so successfully that it’s easy to forget that he’s there. Considering that he still has the third idol and that there are still bigger threats in the game, he also has a very good chance of making it to at least the final four.
Sarah still has the legacy advantage, which she will have to use during the next challenge. At this point, Sarah should be everyone’s target so she’s going to either need to win immunity or make some brilliant deals if she’s going to avoid being sent to the jury.
Up until tonight, Cirie was playing a perfect game. The way she screwed up her attempt to use Sarah’s “steal a vote” advantage would seem to indicate that she’s slipping a little. And now, she’s lost her strongest ally. Cirie should have a big target on her back at this point.
Brad Culpepper is seen as being a stronger player than he actually is. For the most part, he’s survived this long through a combination of being good at challenges and just having good luck. But he’s not much of a strategist and his social game doesn’t appear to be that strong either. If I was picking someone to sit next to me in the finale, I might very well pick Culpepper.
And finally, Aubry. Aubry is another player who has a reputation for being strong than she actually is. Aubry has, to her credit, been for less whiny this season than she was during her previous season but, for the most part, she’s gotten this far by flying under the radar. The few times that she has tried to step up and play mastermind, it’s blown up in her face.
So, here’s my final three prediction:
And Troyzan will shock everyone by winning, largely because he’s the only person to get through the entire season without annoying anyone on the jury.
We’ll see what happens next Wednesday!