Survivor 42.12 “Caterpillar to a Butterfly”

Last week, I said that the castaways better wake up and realize that Omar would very difficult to beat if he made it to the final three.  

Last night, Maryanne revealed that she felt the same way.  Maryanne not only engineered Omar’s blindside but she also firmly established herself as the front runner to win the entire season.  She’s got an idol so she’s guaranteed to make it to the final four.  If she makes it to the final three, either by winning immunity or the firemaking challenge, she’ll be difficult to beat.  Everyone likes her.  She can play up the whole “I never thought I would be on Survivor!” angle of her story.  And now, she can claim that she pulled off the biggest move of the season.

The finale is next week and there are currently five castaways left: Jonathan, Romeo, Maryanne, Mike, and Lindsay.  What makes thing complicated is that there are also three idols still active.  Maryanne, Mike, and Lindsay all have idols.  The next tribal council will be their last opportunity play them.  What that means is that, even if they don’t win immunity, those three are guaranteed to make the top four.

It also means that Jonathan and Romeo will have to win immunity if either one of them wants to be guaranteed a chance to join them.  Since Jonathan and Lindsay are the only two castaways who have shown any skill when it comes to challenges, it seems likely that the finale will come begin with another showdown between the two of them.  LIndsay wants Jonathan out.  If Lindsay were to win immunity, she could just as easily give her idol to Romeo.  Of course, if Mike wins immunity, he could give his idol to Jonathan.  As for Maryanne, who knows what she would do?

According to the previews for next week’s finale, Romeo is going to try to make a fake immunity idol, which would seem to indicate that 1) Romeo does not win immunity and 2) no one else gives him their idol.  But who knows?  Romeo could just be making an idol to try to trick Jonathan into throwing the final immunity challenge.  Either way, just the fact that Romeo is in the top five is kind of amazing.  I always forget he’s on the show.

As far as the rest of the castaways are concerned:

I think Maryanne has the best shot to win, assuming she makes it to the final three.  If the castaways are smart, none of them will want to take her to the final three so, unless she wins the final immunity challenge, I get the feeling that she’s going to end up having to make fire.

Lindsay has the 2nd best chance to win, assuming that the jury isn’t bitter.

Mike is in a good position, even though he hasn’t really done much this season.  If the jury wants to vote for who they like on a personal level and if Maryanne doesn’t make it to the finale, Mike might have a shot.

Jonathan can make a case for himself but I think his social game wasn’t as strong as Maryanne’s and Mike’s.  Simply winning challenges is a good way to make it to the end but it doesn’t often translate into a win.

Romeo is pretty much a nonfactor.  If he makes it to the end, it’ll be because everyone feels they can beat him.

The finale is next so we’ll see what happens!